There are approximately 630,000 cases of pulmonary embolism in the US each year, with an 11% mortality rate in the first hour. The diagnosis is missed in 71% (400,000) of the survivors (1). A vast majority of subsequent deaths from PE occur within 2 weeks of the initial episode with a 23.8% mortality at one year. Almost all of these later deaths are attributable to underlying cardiovascular, pulmonary, or malignant disease (2). It has been demonstrated angiographically that there is minimal resolution of pulmonary emboli over the first week followed by moderate to complete resolution from 10-21 days (3). However, complete resolution is uncommon and the degree of angiographic resolution continues for at least 30 days (3).
It has long been known that scintigraphic perfusion studies show a changing pattern over short periods of time (4). In fact, a fixed pattern is unlikely to represent embolic disease (5). The rate and degree of improvement is related to the size of the initial involvement (4,6). Early changes in the scintigraphic appearance are secondary to multiple other factors as well: age of the thrombi, transit from larger to smaller branches, mechanical dissolution, changes in pulmonary resistance and reflex mechanisms (7,8). Following the initial changes there is variable long term resolution of scintigraphic defects. In the Urokinase trial there was 75% complete resolution at one year (6). The two factors that have been definitively correlated with incomplete resolution are age greater than 60 and heart disease (4,6,9). The significance of unresolved PE is the decreased specificity of subsequent VQ studies. With a history of prior PE the positive predictive value of a high probability study (PIOPED criteria) decreases from 97% to 74% (1).
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